✎ resources:die_probabilities

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====== Die Probabilities ======

This probability chart shows percentage of success when rolling these combinations. It does not report how many advantage, threat, triumph or depair might be rolled.

^ Pool ^  ^ `di` ^ `ch` ^ `di``di` ^ `ch``di` ^
| `bo` | 33.3% | | | | |
| `ab` | 50.0% | 34.5% | 26.0% | 23.5% | 17.5% |
| `bo``bo` | 56.0% | | | | |
| `pr` | 66.6% | 46.0% | 35.0% | 31.0% | 23.6% |
| `ab``ab` | 75.0% | 57.0% | 49.0% | 43.5% | 36.0% |
| `pr``ab` | 83.0% | 65.0% | 56.0% | 50.0% |
| `ab``ab``ab` | 87.5% | 73.0% | 66.0% | 60.0% |
| `pr``pr` | 89.0% | 72.0% | 64.0% | 57.0% |
| `pr``ab``ab` | 92.0% | 78.0% | 72.0% | 65.0% |
| `ab``ab``ab``ab` | 94.0% | 83.0% | 78.0% | 72.0% |
| `pr``pr``ab` | 94.5% | 83.0% | 77.0% | 70.0% |
| `pr``pr``pr` | 96.0% | 86.0% | 81.0% |
| `pr``ab``ab``ab` | 96.0% | 87.0% | 82.0% |
| `ab``ab``ab``ab``ab` | 97.0% | 90.0% | 86.5% | 81.0% | 77.0% |
| `pr``pr``ab``ab` | 97.0% | 89.0% | 86.0% |
| `pr``ab``ab``ab``ab` | 98.0% | 92.0% | 89.0% |
| `pr``pr``pr``ab` | 98.0% | 92.0% | 89.0% |
| `pr``pr``pr``pr` | 99.0% | 94.0% | 91.0% | 86.0% | 82.0% |


A full probability chart can be found here: {{ :resources:idoc.pub_star-wars-edge-of-the-empire-dice-roll-probability.pdf |}}
====== Advantage, Threat, Triumph & Despair Probabilities ======

For each pool it shows the average number of results you may get. The first number is when the overall result is a success and the second number is when the overall result is a failure.

For example, when rolling a single boost die you have an average chance of getting 0.5 advantage results when the overall result is a success and 0.7 advantage results when the overall result is a failure. This shows that a boost die gives more advantage when failing and less advantage when succeeding.

^ Pool ^ Success % ^ `ad` ^ `th` ^ `tr` ^ `de` ^
| `bo` | 33% | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| `ab` | 50% | 0.3 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| `pr` | 67% | 0.4 / 1.3 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| `ab``di` | 34% | 0.0 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.2 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| `ab``ab``di``di` | 44% | 0.1 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 0.3 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| `pr``ab``di``di` | 50% | 0.2 / 0.7 | 1.0 / 0.3 | 0.1 / 0.1 | 0.0 / 0.0 |

====== Notes on Probability Trends  ======

  * **Larger Equal Pools = More Success**
    * Equal pools trend towards favoring success when the pools are larger.
    * Example: `ab``di` = 34.0% while `ab``ab``ab``ab``di``di``di``di` = 50.5%

From [[http://maxmahem.net/wp/star-wars-edge-of-the-empire-die-probabilities/]] here is a chart on upgrading pools:

^Modification^Increased Average Success^Increased Average Advantage^
|Add `bo`|+0.33|+0.66|
|Add `se`|-0.33|-0.33|
|Add `ab`|+0.625|+0.625|
|Add `di`|-0.625|-0.75|
|Add `pr`|+0.83|+0.6|
|Add `ch`|-0.75|-0.6|
|Upgrade `ab` to `pr`|+0.2083|+0.0416|
|Upgrade `di` to `ch`|+0.25|+0.083|

Also from the same website comes the following summaries and formulas:

**Upgrading `ab` to `pr`:**
  * Has only minimal increases to the success rate (20.83% per die).
  * It has an insignificant increase to receiving more `ad` (20.83% maximum).
  * Adds the ability of rolling `tr` (42% chance maximum).

**Upgrading `di` to `ch`:**
  * Has a better chance for increased failure than the 'good' die (25% per die).
  * Actually decreases odds of rolling threat! (41.66% maximum).
  * Same as Triumphs above.

**Average Success Rate Formula**
''(0.33B + 0.625A + 0.83P) - (0.33S + 0.50D + 0.75C)''

**Average Advantage Rate Formula**
''(0.66B + 0.625A + 0.66P) - (0.33S + 0.75D + 0.66C)''
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